The notebook
Method2026-06-18#reliability

Ask for counter-evidence before confidence

The useful move is not asking the model to be uncertain. The useful move is forcing it to search for the best case against itself while the answer is still provisional.

A simple pattern: draft the answer, list disconfirming evidence, name what would change the answer, then assign confidence. The confidence number becomes attached to evidence quality instead of verbal smoothness.

This is especially helpful for research summaries, legal-ish interpretation, data diagnosis, and anything where one missing constraint can flip the conclusion.

Confidence after counter-evidence is more useful than confidence after a sales pitch.